NIW Forschungsseminar

Im NIW Forschungsseminar stellen eingeladene Gäste von Universitäten und Forschungsinstituten aus dem In- und Ausland ihre Forschungsarbeiten vor. Die Diskussion von Ansätzen und Ergebnissen mit den Forscherinnen und Forschern des Instituts erlaubt einen intensiven wissenschaftlichen Austausch.

Mitglieder der Fakultät und Interessierte sind herzlich eingeladen an den Vorträgen teilzunehmen.

Für Fragen zum Forschungskolloquium wenden Sie sich bitte an Hendrik Thiel.

Ort: Niedersächsisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Königstraße 53, 30175 Hannover.

Kommende Seminare

11.06.2013 16:30 Uhr	Prof. Dr. Bernhard Boockmann (IAW Tübingen)
	"Coaching, Counseling, Case-Working: Do They Help Older Unemployed Out Of Benefits and Back Into the Labor Market?"
	In this paper we present key results from the evaluation of "Perspektive 50plus", a large-scale active labor market program directed at older workers in Germany. The program is specially designed to integrate older long-term unemployed into the first labor market and provides significant financial incentives to local job centers. Based on administrative data, a combination of different evaluation estimators is used to check the sensitivity of the results to selection, substitution and local labor market effects. We find a large positive effect of the program in the range of 5 to 10 percentage points on integration into unsubsidized employment. However, there are also substantial lock-in effects, such that program participants have a higher probability to remain in public welfare benefit receipt up to one year after program start. While the program is effective, these lock-in effects may also make it very costly.

18.06.2013 16:30 Uhr	Prof. Dr. Melanie Arntz (Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg und ZEW Mannheim)
25.06.2013 16:30 Uhr	Prof. Dr. Guido Heineck (Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg)

Vergangene Seminare

21.05.2013	Prof. Dr. Gesine Stephan (Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg und IAB Nürnberg)
	"Is the Contracting-Out of Intensive Placement Services More Effective than Provision by the PES? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment"
	There is a longstanding debate on the advantages of quasi-markets for placement services compared to their public deliverance. During 2009, the German Public Employment Service (PES) implemented a randomized field experiment to investigate if intensive services for hard-to-place unemployed individuals can be provided more effectively by such private pro-viders or by PES in-house teams. Unemployed persons were assigned to intensive services for a period of eight months. This paper presents the first results of this experiment; the observation period covers 18 months after assignment. Initial in-house provision reduces accumulated days in unemployment by one to two months. Approximately two thirds of this effect is attributable to labor market withdrawals. The effect on the share of individuals in a given labor market sta-tus (unemployed, employed, and withdrawn) occurs mainly during the program period of eight months and disappears by the end of the observation period. We conclude that in a particular environment, the public provision of placement services can be as least as effective as contract-ing-out – a simple comparison of effectiveness might, however, be misleading.

08.04.2013	Michael Jetter, Ph.D. (Universidad EAFIT Medellin)
	"The Determinants of UN Interventions - Are There Regional Preferences?"
	What leads the United Nations Security Council to intervene in one conflict, but remain inactive in others of similar magnitude and cruelty? This paper analyzes all registered 178 domestic and international conflicts since 1945, with the goal to unveil what determines the probability of a UN intervention. Our main focus lies on the question whether the geographical proximity to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) has an effect on the probability of intervention. Our results suggest that the UN is substantially more likely to intervene in conicts located in Europe. A more detailed look at distances revels that for every 1,000 kilometers of distance from France or the United Kingdom the probability of intervention decreases by about one third. Further, we find that UN intervention is signicantly more likely to happen in smaller (less population), poorer (smaller GDP per capita), and less open economies (openness to international trade).

19.03.2013	Dr. Stefan Hennemann (Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen)
	"Spatial Scientometrics - Netzwerkanalyse mit wissenschaftlichen Publikationen und Patenten"

05.02.2013	Dr. Jörg Thomä (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen)
	"Der Schutz von Innovationen in KMU - empirische Ergebnisse unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Mitarbeiterbindung"
	Die Förderung einer intensiveren Nutzung von intellektuellen Eigentumsrechten (IPRs) – allen voran des Patentschutzes – durch kleine und mittlere Unternehmen (KMU) gehört zu den aktuellen Punkten auf der innovationspolitischen Agenda. Denn trotz ihrer innovatorischen Bedeutung greifen KMU nur unterdurchschnittlich häufig auf IPRs zurück. In der wirtschaftspolitischen Diskussion besteht angesichts dieser Tatsache die Sorge, dass kleinere Unternehmen aufgrund von größenbedingten Benachteiligungen im IPR-System nicht ausreichend genug auf die staatlich gewährte Möglichkeit zur Aneignung von Innovationserträgen zurückgreifen können. Eine Reihe von empirischen Befunden spricht in der Tat dafür, dass kleinere Unternehmen aufgrund von größenbedingten Defiziten einen geringeren Nutzen aus dem IPR-System ziehen können als größere Unternehmen. Nichtsdestotrotz steht eine abschließende Antwort auf die Frage weiterhin aus, warum IPRs nur unterdurchschnittlich häufig durch KMU genutzt werden. Denn es kann nicht automatisch vorausgesetzt werden, dass es sich bei formellen Schutzrechten von vornherein um den besten Weg zur Lösung des "appropriability"-Problems handelt. Dies ist insofern bedeutsam, da sich Innovationsprozesse in kleineren Unternehmen in gewisser Hinsicht von denjenigen in größeren Unternehmen unterscheiden. Es kann folglich nicht ausgeschlossen werden, dass in KMU die Aneignung von Innovationserträgen ebenfalls charakteristische Besonderheiten aufweist. Vor diesem Hintergrund behandelt der Vortrag die Ergebnisse einer empirischen Untersuchung zum Aneignungsverhalten innovativer KMU. Zum einen werden hierbei von einer wissensbasierten Perspektive ausgehend mögliche Einflussfaktoren auf die unternehmensinterne Relevanz zweier zentraler Schutzmaßnahmen – des Patentschutzes und der langfristigen Bindung qualifizierten Personals – identifiziert. Ein besonderer Fokus liegt auf der Rolle der Mitarbeiterbindung, da es sich hierbei um einen in der einschlägigen Forschungsliteratur bisher weitgehend vernachlässigten Mechanismus zur Aneignung von Innovationserträgen handelt. Zum anderen wird der Frage nachgegangen, ob sich im Falle einer gemeinsamen Nutzung die Aneignungsmechanismen "Patentschutz" und "Mitarbeiterbindung" im Sinne eines effektiven Innovationsschutzes gegenseitig ergänzen oder ob im jeweiligen Fall eher Komplementaritäten zu anderen Schutzmaßnahmen bestehen. Dies ist insofern von Relevanz, da mit Blick auf die wechselseitigen Zusammenhänge zwischen der Wirksamkeit von verschiedenen formellen und informellen Schutzmaßnahmen bisher vergleichsweise wenig empirische Erkenntnisse vorliegen.

16.10.2012	Jun.-Prof. Dr. Tom Brökel (Leibniz Universität Hannover)
	"Forschungsförderung, Kooperationsnetzwerke und Innovationserfolg"
	The subsidization of R&D and R&D cooperation has gained in importance in recent years. While existing research focuses primarily on effects at the firm level, the study relates these measures to regional innovation efficiency. Building on a rich panel data set, covering 270 German labor market regions and four industries, it is shown that subsidies for R&D cooperation are a suitable policy measure for stimulating the innovation efficiency of regions. The empirical findings suggest that regions with low innovation capacities benefit the most from cooperation among regional firms and subsidized links to non-regional public research institutes. The subsidization of cooperation with non-regional universities is more important for regions with large innovation capacities. Support for non-cooperative projects is related to negative effects.

02.10.2012	Prof. Dr. Thomas Zwick (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)
	"How Acid are Lemons? Adverse Selection and Signalling for Skilled Labour Market Entrants"
	This paper analyses the consequences of negative selection on entry wages of skilled employees. It uses German linked employer employee panel data (LIAB) and introduces a measure for relative productivity of skilled job applicants based on apprenticeship wages. It shows that post-apprenticeship employer changers are a negative selection from the training firms’ point of view. Negative selection leads to lower average wages of employer changers in the first skilled job in comparison to stayers. Entry wages of employer changers are specifically reduced by high occupation and training firm retention rates. Additional training firm characteristics are high apprenticeship wages that signal a positive selection of apprenticeship applicants, works councils and establishment size. Finally, positive individual characteristics such as schooling background affect the skilled entry wages of employer changers positively.

10.07.2012	Malte Sandner (Leibniz Universität Hannover)
	"The Effects of Early Childhood Intervention on Child Development and Early Skill Formation. Evidence from a Randomized Experiment."
	This paper presents results from a randomized evaluation of a home visiting program for disadvantaged first time mothers and their families implemented in three German federal states. At the end of the first year of the program, children in home visited families perform significantly better than those in the control families by 0.18 standard deviations in the Mental Developmental Index. Examination of gender differences revealed that home visited girls scored 0.30 standard deviations higher than girls in the control families, whereas boys scored similar in both groups. Results indicate no differences in the scores of the Psychomotor Developmental Index and the birth outcomes, despite 0.28 standard deviations higher birth weight for boys in the home visited families compared to boys in the control families. We find evidence for skill self productivity but in different magnitude for boys and girls. Furthermore, we analyze possible monetary returns of the program.

03.07.2012	Dr. Holger Bonin (ZEW Mannheim)
	"Can Role Models Enhance Gender Equality on the Labor Market? Evidence from the Post-Unification Migration Experiment"
	The paper uses the natural experiment of German unification for studying the role of labor supply behavior in explaining occupational segregation by sex. Analyzing a panel of regional labor market data drawn from administrative records, we observe that inflows of East German women with distinct labor market attitudes significantly reduced gender imbalance within occupations in West Germany. The analysis also reveals a spillover effect on West German women who gain better access to male dominated jobs where a higher share of East German women is present.

19.06.2012	Dr. Arne Uhlendorff (Universität Mannheim)
	"The Role of Sickness in the Evaluation of Job Search Assistance and Sanctions"
	Unemployment insurance agencies often combat moral hazard by punishing refusals to apply to assigned vacancies. However, the possibility to report sick creates an additional moral hazard, since (at least in Germany) during sickness spells, minimum requirements on search behavior do not apply. Data show increased sickness absence shortly after vacancy referrals by case workers. We analyze the effects on unemployment duration and job quality, as measured by the wage and employment stability. To evaluate sanction effects and the impact of receiving vacancy referrals, we take the endogenous probability of reporting sick into account. We use administrative register data on vacancy referrals by case workers. We estimate multi-spell duration models with selection on unobserved characteristics.

14.03.2012	Prof. Dr. Joachim Wagner (Leuphana Universität Lüneburg)
	"The Microstructure of the Great Export Collapse in German Manufacturing Industries, 2008/2009"
	The analysis uses comprehensive high-quality panel data from official statistics for exporting enterprises to investigate the micro-structure of the recent export collapse in manufacturing industries in Germany during the crisis of 2008/2009. Almost all of the decline in exports was due to negative changes of exports in firms that continue to export (i.e. at the so-called intensive margin) while the decrease of exports due to export stoppers (at the so-called extensive margin) was tiny. It is shown that Idiosyncratic shocks to very large firms played a decisive role in shaping the export collapse.

20.02.2012	Jochen Güntner (Otto-von-Guericke Universität Magdeburg)
	"How do international stock markets respond to oil demand and supply shocks?"
	Building on Kilian and Park's (2009) structural VAR analysis of the effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the U.S. stock market, this paper studies a broader sample of six OECD countries. The focus is on the differences and commonalities of stock price responses in oil exporting and importing economies during 1974-2011. Structural oil price shocks aid our understanding of historical fluctuations in stock returns - in particular of the 2008 stock market crash. I find that unexpected drops in global oil supply have no significant impact on the stock market in any of the six countries. While an increase in global aggregate demand consistently raises oil prices and cumulative stock returns, the effect is more persistent for oil exporters and more pronounced for Norway. Other, e. g., precautionary oil demand shocks have a detrimental impact on the stock market in oil importing countries, a statistically insignificant effect for Canada, and a significantly positive effect for Norway. Also, oil prices account for a larger fraction of the forecast error variance in global relative to national stock returns.

06.12.2011	Jun. Prof. Dr. Dirk Bethmann (Otto-von-Guericke Universität Magdeburg)
	"World War II - Missing Men and Out of Wedlock Childbearing"
	Drawing upon county-level census data for the German state of Bavaria in 1939 and 1946, we use World War II as a natural experiment to study the effects of changes in the adult sex ratio on out-of-wedlock fertility. Our findings show that war-induced shortfalls of men significantly increased the nonmarital fertility ratio in the middle of the century. Furthermore, we find that the regional magnitude of this effect varies with the county-level share of prisoners of war in an inverse manner. Unlike military casualties and soldiers missing in action, prisoners of war had a sizeable positive probability of returning home from the war. It appears therefore that both current marriage market conditions and foreseeable improvements in the future marriage market prospects of women influenced fertility behavior in the immediate aftermath of World War II.